AUTOMOTIVE COMPETITION INTENSIFIES
Bear case: Optimus and Robotaxi fail, automotive sales stall at 5M units as Chinese EV makers dominate. Price wars compress margins. Tesla becomes a niche premium player.
Base Reality (at scenario creation)
These metrics represent Tesla's financial position at the time this scenario was created. They serve as the baseline from which all projections are calculated. The stock price, market cap, revenue, earnings, and valuation multiples shown here reflect the market's assessment of Tesla at that moment in time.
Scenario 2035
This projection models Tesla's potential financial performance through 2035, based on bottom-up analysis of each business stream. The scenario assumes specific growth rates, market penetration, pricing, and margin trajectories across automotive, energy, FSD subscriptions, robotaxis, and Optimus businesses. The stock price target reflects both earnings growth and P/E multiple normalization over time.
Stock Price by Year
Revenue / Earnings / EPS
P/E Normalization
Gross Profit by Stream
Business Stream Deep Dives
This scenario models Tesla's business streams through 2035. Each business stream below shows detailed revenue, net income, and unit economics projections. The assumptions driving each stream—including market size, penetration rates, pricing, and margins—are visualized to help understand the key drivers behind Tesla's potential valuation. The enabled streams in this scenario include: AutomotiveEnergyFSD Subscriptions.
🚗 Automotive
The automotive business represents Tesla's core vehicle manufacturing and sales. This projection models vehicle deliveries, average selling prices, and margins over time. Key assumptions include market penetration growth, pricing trends, and margin expansion as production scales and costs decline.
Revenue Over Time
Gross Profit Over Time
Units & ASP Over Time
⚡ Energy
Tesla's energy business includes energy storage (batteries) and solar installations. This projection models deployment capacity in gigawatt-hours (GWh) and revenue per GWh. The scenario assumes growth in energy storage demand and Tesla's ability to capture market share in this rapidly expanding market.
Revenue Over Time
Gross Profit Over Time
GWh Deployed & Revenue per GWh
🧠 FSD Subscriptions
FSD (Full Self-Driving) subscriptions represent recurring software revenue from Tesla vehicles. This projection models subscriber growth based on cumulative vehicles sold and take rate (percentage of vehicles with active FSD subscriptions). Key assumptions include adoption rates and monthly subscription pricing (ARPU).
Revenue Over Time
Gross Profit Over Time
FSD Subscribers & ARPU
⚠️ Disclaimer
This is a hypothetical scenario for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Stock prices are inherently unpredictable.