Create New Scenario - Tesla Stock Simulator

Scenario Details

Scenario Name *

Scenario Type

Username *

Your URL (optional)

Description (optional)

Time Horizon

Target Year: 2035

2027 2035 2050

Years from now

10

Valuation Lens

P/E represents market perception, not business execution. Configure how the multiple normalizes over time.

Starting P/E

Current market valuation multiple

Terminal P/E (2035)

End-of-period valuation multiple

Normalization

Transition curve shape

Speed

Transition rate (0.1-2.0)

Delay (Years)

Years before normalization starts

Shares Outstanding

Current Shares (B)

Starting share count in billions

SBC Dilution %/yr

Annual dilution from stock grants

Buyback %/yr

Annual buyback as % of market cap

Central Overhead & Taxes

Corporate expenses shared across all business streams. Net Income = Gross Profit - R&D - SG&A - Taxes.

R&D Start (% Rev)

R&D spending today

R&D End (2035) %

R&D at end of period

SG&A Start (% Rev)

SG&A spending today

SG&A End (2035) %

SG&A at end of period

Tax Rate (%)

Effective tax rate

🚗

Automotive

Market & Growth

TAM Start ($T)

TAM CAGR (%)

Market Share Start (%)

Market Share End (2035) %

Yearly Deliveries & Pricing

Units Start (M)

Units End (2035) M

Price/Unit Start ($)

Price/Unit End (2035) $

Gross Margin & Adoption

Gross Margin Start (%)

Gross Margin End (2035) %

Adoption Curve

Curve Speed

⚡

Energy

Market & Growth

TAM Start ($T)

TAM CAGR (%)

Market Share Start (%)

Market Share End (2035) %

Units & Pricing

Units Start (GWh)

Units End (2035) GWh

Rev/GWh Start ($M)

Rev/GWh End (2035) $M

Gross Margin & Adoption

Gross Margin Start (%)

Gross Margin End (2035) %

Adoption Curve

Curve Speed

🤖

FSD Subscriptions

Market & Growth

TAM Start ($T)

TAM CAGR (%)

Market Share Start (%)

Market Share End (2035) %

Units & Pricing

Installed Base (M)

Take Rate Start (%)

Take Rate End (2035) %

Take Rate Curve

Take Rate Speed

ARPU Start ($/mo)

ARPU End (2035) $/mo

Gross Margin & Adoption

Gross Margin Start (%)

Gross Margin End (2035) %

Adoption Curve

Curve Speed

🚕

Robotaxis

Market & Growth

TAM Start ($T)

TAM CAGR (%)

Market Share Start (%)

Market Share End (2035) %

Units & Pricing

Fleet Size Start (M)

Fleet Size End (2035) M

Rev/Vehicle/Year ($)

Delay (Years)

Gross Margin & Adoption

Gross Margin Start (%)

Gross Margin End (2035) %

Adoption Curve

Curve Speed

🦾

Optimus / Robotics

Market & Growth

TAM Start ($T)

TAM CAGR (%)

Market Share Start (%)

Market Share End (2035) %

Units & Pricing

Units Start (M)

Units End (2035) M

Price/Unit Start ($)

Price/Unit End (2035) $

Delay (Years)

Gross Margin & Adoption

Gross Margin Start (%)

Gross Margin End (2035) %

Adoption Curve

Curve Speed

CREATE SCENARIO

Scenario Details

Time Horizon

Valuation Lens

Shares Outstanding

Central Overhead & Taxes

Business Streams

Automotive

Market & Growth

Yearly Deliveries & Pricing

Gross Margin & Adoption

Energy

Market & Growth

Units & Pricing

Gross Margin & Adoption

FSD Subscriptions

Market & Growth

Units & Pricing

Gross Margin & Adoption

Robotaxis

Market & Growth

Units & Pricing

Gross Margin & Adoption

Optimus / Robotics

Market & Growth

Units & Pricing

Gross Margin & Adoption